Executive Snapshot

Bookings hit €13.16 billion, and Q4 brought €9.72 billion in net sales and €7.34 diluted EPS. This demand signal is more important than any single-quarter revenue print.

Management's FY2026 revenue estimate of €34 billion to €39 billion keeps the growth goal high, with Q1 guidance of €8.2 billion to €8.9 billion.

In Q4, profitability remained strong, with a gross margin of 52.2% and an operating margin of 35.3%.

The shareholder-return layer is strengthened by a projected €7.50 2025 dividend and a new €12 billion buyback (until December 31, 2028).

The fact that the stock is currently trading close to the top of its range ($1,406.87 vs. $1,493.48 high) indicates that investors are already taking the EUV ramp story seriously.

What’s moving the stock now

One dominant setting is pulling ASML: the semiconductor industry is being forced into more sophisticated nodes due to AI-led computing development, which raises lithography intensity. In this cycle, bookings and backlog are the market's "tell" in addition to revenue since they influence the visibility of tool sales several quarters in advance.

For that reason, the record backlog (€38.8B) and the Q4 booking print (€13.16B) are doing a lot of work. Together, they lend credence to the idea that, despite some areas (most notably China-driven DUV demand) normalizing, demand isn't merely "recovering" but is instead rebuilding around cutting-edge logic, sophisticated memory, and EUV adoption.

Expectations Gap

Actuals (Q4 FY2025):

• Revenue: €9.718B
• Diluted EPS: €7.34
• Net bookings: €13.158B

The following is required for a fully numerical "beat/miss" computation in order to quantify surprise percentage:

The consensus estimate values were excluded from the pack when calculating the actual vs. estimate + surprise percentages for Q4 sales and EPS. This section can be modified to include the precise surprise percentages if you provide the estimated revenue and EPS for the fourth quarter of FY2025.

Guidance (Q1 & FY2026):

• Q1 revenue €8.2B–€8.9B
• FY2026 revenue €34B–€39B
• Gross margin 51%–53% (Q1 & FY2026)
• Q1 OpEx ~€1.5B

The market framing here is unambiguous, even in the absence of consensus figures: guidance is not "defensive." It acknowledges execution variables (mix, costs, timing) and encourages further expansion.

Operating read-through

The backlog and reservations are the tale.

Even after a successful quarter, a corporation may still have poor prospects for the future. The converse is true for ASML, which has a record €38.8B backlog and bookings (€13.16B) that are significantly higher than quarterly revenues. This combination indicates both demand and a delivery line.

2026 is predicted to see an increase in EUV strength.

According to management commentary, as 2nm transitions gain momentum and High-NA EUV enters high-volume manufacturing, EUV will grow significantly in 2026. Because EUV layers are typically higher-value and frequently enhance the "quality" of income, that matters to investors.

Mix can counteract the normalizing effect of the DUV requirement.

DUV exposure is the main thing to keep an eye on. Demand for DUVs from China is predicted to decline to about 20% of overall sales. There is still a substantial mix and timing sensitivity, despite the offset argument that part of that softness may be absorbed by enhanced logic and DRAM demand.

The guidance indicates discipline, but margins remain strong.

ASML continues to operate from a position of pricing power and scale, as seen by its Q4 margins (52.2% gross; 35.3% operating). The company is keeping expectations about mix and costs reasonable while maintaining a high profit baseline, as indicated by the guidance of a 51% to 53% gross margin.

Valuation + positioning

Price behavior: Following a robust post-earnings run (three months of strength; almost 30% year-to-date based on your market snapshot), ASML (NASDAQ) is trading at $1,406.87, near its 52-week high of $1,493.48.

Range context: The 52-week low ($578.51) shows how semicap multiples can be compressed by cyclical dread and how quickly sentiment can turn around when bookings start to pick up again.

Support for capital returns: the recent €12 billion repurchase adds a significant "structural bid," particularly when the stock is trading more on general sentiment than on the company's performance.

Catalysts

• Q1 results compared to the margin band (51%–53%) and the guided revenue (€8.2B–€8.9B).
• Updates on adoption signals and progress for High-NA EUV (timelines, client readiness).
• Order conversion: whether or not the backlog and reservations result in efficient shipments and revenue timing.
• Any news on the region's demand mix, particularly the pace of normalization relative to China?

Risks

• Mix risk: although long-term logic/DRAM demand remains strong, a quicker-than-expected decline in China-linked DUV demand could put pressure on near-term shipments.
• Execution risk: Customers plan node transitions around the High-NA EUV ramp; timescales are important. This is a technological and supply-chain exercise.
• Margin sensitivity: If the mix changes negatively, management noted potential cost constraints (such as supply chain and memory) that could affect margins.
• Macro/cycle risk: if end demand declines, semiconductor capital expenditures may halt abruptly; ASML usually senses this through reservations first.

Shariah compliance lens

ASML's business activity is primarily Halal (98.89%) with a little non-Halal fraction (1.11%), passing AAOIFI-style Shariah screening. Interest-bearing assets and securities (5.56%) and interest-bearing debt (1.49%) both maintain a "Pass" profile on the financial screens, staying well below typical thresholds.

Conclusion

A high-confidence setup was reaffirmed by ASML's Q4 print: management is looking ahead to 2026 with an ambitious €34 billion to €39 billion revenue view and a new €12 billion buyback, and demand visibility is improving. The findings imply that the EUV-led growth narrative is making a comeback, but the next phase will probably rely on how effectively bookings translate into shipments and how well margins hold up as cost and product mix factors change through 2026.

Sources:

• ASML Holding NV - ADR - (Gurufocus)
• ASML - (Press Release)
• ASML outlines €34B–€39B 2026 sales target amid AI-driven demand acceleration and new €12B buyback plan (SeekingAlpha)

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