Executive Snapshot.

The quarter produced a traditional "beat-and-miss" mix: sales of $3.92 billion compared to $3.90 billion estimated, but adjusted. EPS of $4.30 compared to $4.32 estimated.

The stock dropped 9.71% on February 10 and is now down 26.6% from its mid-January peak, indicating an immediate market reaction.

Trend matters: Before Q4's EPS miss broke the pattern, SPGI had several quarters of clean beats (Q1–Q3).

According to the results statement, the FY2026 scenario calls for management to forecast 6%–8% growth in organic sales and $19.40–$19.65 in adjusted EPS, with a tax rate of 22%–23%.

The business is still based on significant sector breadth and recurring/subscription revenues, but the market now demands tighter profit conversion, demonstrating that quality remains evident in the model.

What’s moving the stock now?

This is a conversion and confidence tale, not a "demand broke" narrative.

Even so, SPGI reported higher-than-expected sales, and previous quarters show the company has routinely exceeded projections. Even though it was small, Q4's EPS miss was significant because it came at a time when investors were already considering whether expenses, reinvestment, and mix were increasing faster than earnings.

The stock move was not gradual because of this. It drastically changed into a new set of questions:

Is it possible for the business to maintain its growth engine while safeguarding per-share results?

Expectations Gap

Q4 2025 (Actual vs Estimated)

• Revenue: $3.92B vs $3.90B → ~+0.5% surprise
• Adjusted EPS: $4.30 vs $4.32 → ~-0.5% surprise

The context investors will reference

Prior to Q4, SPGI produced clear beats in adjusted EPS and revenue for three quarters:

• EPS for Q3: $4.73 against $4.38
• EPS for Q2: $4.43 against $4.20
• EPS for Q1: $4.37 against $4.23

Therefore, Q4 wasn't just "a miss"; rather, it was a deviation from a run-rate that the market had come to regard as consistent.

Operating read-through

Profit conversion is up for discussion, but revenue resilience is unaffected.

One of three things (or a mix of them) is usually indicated by a revenue beat and an EPS miss:

• Cost growth surpasses revenue growth.
• mix moving in the direction of a smaller incremental margin, or
• temporal impacts on investments and expenses.

The main lesson for investors is that while Q4 increased scrutiny of operating leverage, it did not refute the subscription engine.

FY2026 takes over as the anchor.

The market swiftly shifts from Q4 details to the FY26 frame with a strong post-earnings move: 6%–8% organic growth, $19.40–$19.65 adjusted EPS, and a 22%–23% tax rate. Whether SPGI can execute that outlook with fewer shocks on profitability is "what matters next" after a day of -9.71%.

Valuation + positioning

In less than a month, SPGI's fall has been dramatic, going from $546.35 on January 16 to $401.08 on February 10. This represents a -26.6% move.

Additionally, the stock dropped from $465.51 on February 4th to $401.08 on February 10th (-13.8%) following the post-earnings reset.

The current price suggests a forward multiple in the low-20s, consistent with a market that still values the business but is no longer willing to pay for "perfect" execution, given the FY26 adjusted EPS estimate range of $19.40 to $19.65.

Catalysts

Follow up with investors on FY26: any new information on operating leverage, margin trends, and cost cadence.

Recurring revenue momentum signals: a reminder that subscription trends are stable despite changes in the macro environment.

Any changes that increase visibility on the path and reporting implications are considered mobility-related improvements.

Risks

Operating leverage risk: Q4 showed that if costs, mix, or timing work against the quarter, EPS can still miss even if sales beat expectations.

Sensitivity of the capital markets (Ratings): if macro conditions improve, issuance-driven activity can swiftly change sentiment.

Expectation risk: after multiple quarters of beats, investors may re-rate the stock if execution becomes less predictable.

Volatility risk: regardless of fundamentals, a -9.71% earnings-day move frequently increases short-term technical pressure.

Conclusion

The fourth quarter of SPGI was a recalibration rather than a narrative collapse. Although revenue exceeded projections, the stock was repriced after an EPS shortfall ended a multi-quarter streak of clear outperformance. Currently, the setup depends on how well FY26 is executed. If management can demonstrate that profit conversion is stabilizing while the subscription engine remains operational, the abrupt de-rating may begin to normalize; if not, the market may continue to discount the company until the quality of earnings improves.

Shariah compliance lens.

A company activity profile that is primarily acceptable (99.48% Halal), with a little non-Halal portion (0.45%) and minimal dubious exposure (0.07%), supports S&P Global's Shariah screening result of Pass. The balance-sheet measures on financial screens also stay comfortably within standard ranges, with interest-bearing debt at 8.21% and interest-bearing securities & assets at 1.21% (both below 30%).

Sources

• S&P Global - Press Release - (Investor relations)
• Gurufocus - S&P Global Inc - (Gurufocus)
• S&P Global Inc. Stock Analysis - (Musaffa)

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