Despite not producing chips or offering cloud subscription services, Moody's is in a strong position because it generates revenue from decision-making. Moody's tools and ratings gain value when banks manage risk, corporations grow debt, investors demand transparency, and regulators tighten rules.

This combination is significant at the moment because two factors are at play: the rapid turn of the credit cycle and the demand for AI-driven analytics, both evident in Moody's results and 2026 projections.

Moody's operates as a "Decision Infrastructure" company.

Moody's works at the nexus of risk analytics and credit markets:

• Credit ratings and other services provided by Moody's Investors Service (MIS) are closely related to bond issuance and credit conditions.
• Moody's Analytics (MA): more recurring and "platform-like" software/data for financial intelligence, compliance, and credit risk.

Because of this, Moody's may appear defensive in some situations, but it has potential when the financial markets rebound.

Q4 Results: Solid Execution, with Strength Across Segments

Growth in all business areas helped Moody's post revenue of almost $1.9 billion in the most recent quarter. Moody's Analytics and Moody's Investors Service generated around $926 million and $964 million in revenue, respectively.

Additionally, profitability remained stable: adjusted diluted EPS for the quarter was $3.64, while diluted EPS was $2.89. Since it serves as the standard by which many investors evaluate continuing earnings power, that adjusted number is significant.

The market's response makes sense, since this was more than just a "good quarter"; it supports the idea that Moody's can continue to grow even if the macro environment remains unbalanced.

The Takeaway for 2026: While AI Aids, Guidance Is the True Spark

The forward view is what shifted the focus from "good" to "notable." According to Moody's, for 2026:

• High-single-digit growth in sales
• $16.40-$17.00 in adjusted diluted earnings per share
• (In addition to the $15.00–$15.60 GAAP diluted EPS)

The most important lesson is that management expresses confidence that demand is widespread rather than limited to a single product or issue window. The AI perspective is important in this case because it encourages financial institutions and businesses to use analytical workflows, automation, and higher-value risk tools more frequently.

"AI Adoption → Analytics Expansion → 2026 Earnings Power" is one scenario to monitor.

This is the one clear line that the story needs:

Moody's is well-positioned to market the infrastructure that underpins risk decisions, which are becoming more complex and frequent due to the deployment of AI.

Moody's does not turn into an "AI stock" as a result. This implies that AI can amplify:

• how frequently customers utilize analytics,
• the extent to which tools are included in risk and compliance processes,
• and the degree to which recurrent income becomes sticky over time.

However, MIS performance is still important because ratings and associated income can rise rapidly as issuance improves.

Risks to Watch

Despite its excellent quality, Moody's is not immune to the macro cycle. Usually, the credit side poses the biggest risks:

• A significant halt in the issuance of debt (which lowers rating volumes and fee opportunities)
• Stress on credit that might discourage fresh funding, while also causing rating actions
• Valuation sensitivity: Moody's is frequently priced by investors as a premium compounder, so solid guidance and execution are essential.

While 2026 guidance is constructive, the path can still be volatile if markets swing between risk-on/risk-off.

Shariah Screening Snapshot

According to the most recent findings, the stock passes the primary standards for Shariah screening, with most corporate activities deemed acceptable and financial ratios comfortably within the typical 30% limits.

• Business activity: 2.53% Not Halal (Pass), 0.94% Doubtful, and 96.53% Halal
• Securities and investments bearing interest: 3.32% (Pass; below threshold)
• 9.56% of debt is interest-bearing (pass; below criteria).

The minor non-halal component is usually associated with incidental goods rather than core operations, and overall, the screening indicates that the financial features are Shariah-compliant.

Conclusion

According to Moody's, the credit cycle will remain the swing factor in 2026, but analytics momentum—aided by AI deployment—will sustain earnings power. The quarter's validated execution, and investors' next attention will likely be on the forward guidance, particularly the $16.40–$17.00 range for adjusted EPS.

Sources

• Moody's Corp. Stock Analysis - (Musaffa)
• Moodys Corp - (Gurufocus)
• Financial Summary Table - (Moody’s)
• Moody's projects $16.40–$17 EPS and high single-digit revenue growth for 2026 as AI adoption accelerates - (SeekingAlpha)

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