QCOM Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Earnings Showdown Looms for Qualcomm’s AI Push

Qualcomm develops and commercializes core wireless technologies (3G/4G/5G) and high-performance, low-power computing, including on-device AI. Its segments are Qualcomm CDMA Technologies (QCT) which designs integrated circuits and system software for RF front ends, digital cockpits, ADAS/automated driving, IoT, consumer and industrial devices, and edge networking — Qualcomm Technology Licensing (QTL), which licenses patented technologies for wireless products, and Qualcomm Strategic Initiatives.

The chipmaker, which powers smartphones, tablets and gaming devices and is expanding its AI offerings, will release fiscal third quarter results this afternoon.

Key highlights:

• For the fiscal third quarter ended in June, analysts expect adjusted EPS of $2.24 and revenue of about $9.7 billion.
• Analysts (FactSet) forecast $8.3B for QCT, $5.1B for handsets and $1.5B for automotive. Qualcomm has topped estimates in each of the past four quarters, averaging a 3.28% earnings surprise (3.11% in the most recent quarter), per Zacks.
• At an investor event in New York last Wednesday, the company outlined its AI data-center strategy, targeting over $15 billion in data-center revenue by fiscal 2029 and $5 billion by fiscal 2027. It unveiled a roadmap including the Dragonfly C1000 CPU and Dragonfly AI300 inference accelerator.
• "Agentic AI is driving a surge in data-center inference demand," Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon said, adding that the shift to higher-performance, lower-power infrastructure plays to Qualcomm's strengths and that Dragonfly backed by multi-year, multi-generation deals with top customers brings its high-performance, low-power computing to the data center.
• QCOM struck a multiyear deal to supply data-center CPUs to Meta Platforms for its next-gen servers, expanded its strategic partnership with Hugging Face to boost open, developer-driven AI from devices to cloud, and agreed to acquire AI infrastructure software firm Modular for $3.9 billion, gaining software for efficient model deployment and an AI programming language.
• The company’s push into AI data centers is part of a broader diversification to lessen handset reliance while ramping up automotive, robotics, and IoT chip businesses.
• QCOM shares fell 4.2% to $162.88 on Tuesday. their lowest close since April 29 and biggest drop since June 26; leaving the stock down 4.8% year-to-date and 0.5% over the past 12 months, per Dow Jones Market Data.

Investors Focus:

• Cody Acree, senior semiconductor analyst at Benchmark/StoneX, rates Qualcomm Buy with a $300 target. He models revenue of $9.675 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.23, noting: “Our mix is more cautious in Handsets, offset by modest upside in Automotive, IoT and QTL.”.
• Acree flags three key questions: did China Android revenue hit its June trough and is it growing sequentially; will September price actions preserve QCT margins without prompting another customer inventory cut; and will management provide concrete proof supporting the $5 billion FY27 data-center target.
• Acree says Qualcomm’s September outlook should matter more than June’s, and forecasts $10.2 billion in revenue and $2.36 adjusted EPS (Street: $10.0B and $2.37 EPS).
• Wall Street praised Qualcomm’s strategy but stayed cautious due to its smartphone exposure. Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore upgraded the stock to equal-weight from underweight and raised his target to $231 from $146, saying he is “a bit skeptical, but not enough to forecast underperformance given the overall strength in AI.” He called Qualcomm a “show-me story” until it demonstrates market traction despite the large data-center opportunity.

Analysts Expectation:

• Benchmark reiterated a Buy rating and $300 price target on Qualcomm (QCOM).
• Cantor Fitzgerald cut its price target on Qualcomm (QCOM) to $200 from $220, keeping a Neutral rating.
• A Citi analyst-maintained Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) at Neutral with a $198 price target.

QUALCOMM Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM)

Source: Investing.com

SHARIAH Compliance Matrix

Qualcomm qualifies all three Musaffa Shariah screening parameters based on AAOIFI methodology as of Q2 2026 report.

• Business Activity 97.66% Halal, Doubtful is 1.27%, and non-Halal is 1.06%.
• Interest-bearing securities and assets = 5.82% (Shariah-complaint is < 30%).
• Interest-bearing debt = 9.07% (Shariah-complaint is < 30%).

QCOM Q3 2026 earnings after market (4:00 PM ET) Wednesday July 29, 2026

Technical Analysis Perspective:

• QCOM rallied from an April 2026 low of $122 to an all-time high of $260 in May 2026.
• The stock has fallen 37.5% from that high to $162 yesterday.
• Key support sits at $161–$156 (upside gap from late April 2026).
• Base case: if QCOM holds $161–$156 after earnings, expect a gradual rebound to $174–$175.
• Alternate case: a decisive break and sustained close below $156 could lead to a slide toward $149–$145.

Daily Candlestick Chart

QCOM Seasonality Chart:

Source: stockcharts.com

Since 2007, QCOM closed July higher 60% of the time, averaging a +4.20% gain; August closed lower 37% of the time, averaging a -0.16% decline.

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