The most recent version from Linde is a traditional "quality compounder under scrutiny" configuration. As the post-call discussion turned to the other side of the ledger—weak pricing and flat organic growth signals—the business reiterated a clear 2026 EPS target and cited a record project backlog. In this type of tape, the stock rises regardless of whether the next leg of growth is broad-based or driven primarily by FX and productivity, or whether execution is sound.

Linde is being judged on pricing power, not demand hype

The Q4 sales of $8.76 billion and the EPS of $4.20 were somewhat higher than expected, indicating an incremental profits beat. The front frame was the larger message. Although the business reported a 3% foreign exchange tailwind and base volume at 0% (midpoint), the adjusted EPS projection of $4.20 to $4.30 for Q1 2026 suggests growth. This combination is exactly what encourages "pricing/organic" skepticism, particularly when external criticism emphasizes bad pricing.

The 2026 target is the anchor — and it’s backed by backlog

The headline that matters most to longer-term holders is management's 2026 EPS forecast of $17.40–$17.90, since it diverts focus from the noise of quarter-to-quarter trading to a multi-year trajectory. Visibility is the other stabilizer. At the conclusion of Q4 2025, Linde reported a $10.0 billion project backlog. Although that backlog doesn't completely eliminate risk, it helps explain why the business can continue discussing margin progression even when short-term organic growth appears to be slowing.

Restructuring is a signal: protect margins while pricing is pressured

Despite being small compared to the rest of the model, the restructuring disclosures are significant for interpretation. Severance costs were $308 million for FY2025 and $255 million in Q4 2025 (about $230 million after-tax net effect). This translates to a margin defense: cost and productivity measures must carry more weight if pricing isn't doing the heavy lifting.

The only numbers you should care about in this story

• 2026 EPS target: $17.40–$17.90
• Backlog: $10.0B
• Q1 adjusted EPS guide: $4.20–$4.30 (6%–9% YoY)
• FX tailwind: 3%
• Base volume: 0% growth (midpoint)
• Stock context: $456.30 last close; $387.78–$486.38 52-week range

Risks to watch

• Pricing risk: Even with solid execution, growth quality is questioned when pricing is poor.
• Organic growth risk: The quarter is more susceptible to price and mix changes when base volume is highlighted at 0% halfway through.
• Risk of backlog conversion: while backlogs improve visibility, project execution and schedule are important.
• FX sensitivity: Growth optics can be compressed and reversed by a 3% tailwind, but it can also improve performance.

Conclusion

With a solid 2026 EPS target, a record backlog, and a margin path backed by cost initiatives, Linde continues to provide a disciplined narrative. Pricing and organic growth, not operational credibility, are the main causes of the short-term pushback. Backlog visibility and the 2026 goal range continue to serve as the long-term narrative's anchors, but the setting suggests sentiment may remain erratic until pricing levels off or volume picks back up.

Shariah screening status: Halal

Sources

• SeekingAlpha-Linde targets $17.40–$17.90 EPS for 2026 as restructuring and record backlog drive outlook -(SeekingAlpha)
• The Globe and Mail - Linde Plc Earnings Call: Record Results, Cautious Outlook - (TheGlobeandMail)
• Linde Reports Full-Year and Fourth-Quarter 2025 Results - (Linde)
• Linde PLC - (Gurufocus)
• Linde PLC. Stock Analysis - (Musaffa)

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